The Certes Institute provides rigorous evaluation and strategic guidance on catastrophic and existential risks. We bring methodical expertise to emerging threats that demand careful, clear-eyed assessment.
Bringing clarity and rigour to the assessment of global catastrophic risks
Systematic analysis of catastrophic and existential risks, from artificial intelligence to biosecurity, climate disruption to nuclear threats. We assess likelihood, severity, and intervention points.
Evidence-based recommendations for policymakers, institutions, and researchers. We translate complex risk landscapes into actionable strategic frameworks.
Original research on risk evaluation methodologies, intervention effectiveness, and governance mechanisms. We publish openly to advance the field.
Priority domains where rigorous analysis is most needed
Evaluating risks from increasingly capable AI systems, including alignment challenges, deployment risks, and governance gaps. Developing frameworks for responsible development.
Read more →Assessing biological risks from natural pandemics to engineered pathogens. Analysing detection capabilities, response mechanisms, and prevention strategies.
Read more →Examining how institutions identify, assess, and respond to catastrophic risks. Developing improved governance frameworks and decision-making processes.
Read more →Certes brings the methodical rigour of traditional risk assessment to novel and unprecedented challenges. We combine deep technical expertise with strategic clarity, providing analysis that is both scientifically grounded and practically actionable.
We work with governments, research institutions, and international bodies to ensure that catastrophic risks receive the serious, sustained attention they require.
About the InstituteCertes' research agenda draws on the foundational work of leading organizations in catastrophic and existential risk evaluation, including the Center for AI Safety, Cambridge's Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology, and others working to understand and mitigate global catastrophic threats.